There are simpler tasks than predicting the UIL’s biennial realignment.

Solving the nation’s health care quandary, for example. Or, say, finding a suitable way to withdraw from Afghanistan. Perhaps, even discovering a way to implement a playoff system in college football.

But since President Obama and his legislative ilk in Washington D.C. have refused to address the UIL realignment, we’ll have to tackle the issue ourselves.

The UIL, the governing body of the state’s high school athletics, will reveal its new alignments for each district in all five classifications Monday at 9 a.m. at www.uil.utexas.edu.

With the understanding that no certainty exists until that time, let’s answer some questions on how realignment will affect Westlake for the school years that start in 2010 and 2011.

It’s a true-or-false format, kids. Like the UIL, you have a 50-percent chance of getting a correct answer.

Theory: Westlake will remain in Region IV.

Answer: False, despite a wealth of reports that predict the Chaps staying in District 25-5A. According to respected high school poster Carl Padilla, the UIL will lower its enrollment cutoff for Class 5A from 2,085 to 2,039. Such a shift would result in a net gain of three 5A schools in Region IV, which currently includes the most Class 5A school of any region. Schools such as San Marcos and Seguin will return to Class 5A, while the likes of Bastrop and Pflugerville Connally drop to 4A.
A quartet of schools with 4A numbers have petitioned the UIL to compete at the 5A level, including Austin Anderson and a trio of schools from Laredo. The UIL almost always agrees to such a petition, thus creating a 10-team district in 29-5A that includes seven Laredo schools and three schools in Del Rio and Eagle Pass, according to Padilla. If the UIL culls the Del Rio and Eagle Pass schools into a district that includes southern San Antonio schools, Westlake will move into Region II.

Theory: Westlake will remain in a district with the Austin 5A schools.

Answer: True, although the Chaps’ historical ties with schools such as Austin High and Bowie don’t matter a spoonful of beans to the UIL mapmakers. Westlake will be one of the three schools in Central Texas that hold the coveted status of a single-high school 5A district, along with Pflugerville and Del Valle. Thus, Westlake can be moved to fill gaps in districts stretching from Williamson County to the northern suburbs of San Antonio.

Remember, the UIL broke up the Little Southwest Conference two years ago when they attached Abilene to a district centered in the Forth Worth area. Tradition matters little when matched against cold statistics.

Theory: Westlake will renew district rivalries with old foes San Marcos, New Braunfels and Seguin.

Answer: False, unless the Chaps stay in Region IV. San Marcos and Seguin will likely move back into Class 5A after a two-year hiatus, and they will be a part of Region IV’s northernmost district. However, look for Westlake to join Anderson, Austin High, Bowie, Akins and Del Valle in a second Central Texas Region II 5A district. Don’t be surprised if the UIL slots San Marcos into that district as well, despite the town’s proximity to Seguin and New Braunfels.

Theory: Westlake will face a much different nondistrict schedule in football.

Answer: True. Westlake coach Darren Allman can’t finalize his nondistrict slate until after realignment, but it’s unlikely that he will want to play more than one Class 4A school.

That school will remain Lake Travis because of the budding rivalry and corporate sponsorship dollars from Chik-fil-A. Cedar Park will likely drop to Class 4A and fall from the Chaps’ schedule. Longtime nondistrict foe A&M Consolidated faced Westlake because their coach, Jim Slaughter, had an established relationship with former Westlake coaches Ron Schroeder and Derek Long. Allman doesn’t have such familiarity with Slaughter, thus a two-year renewal with the Tigers isn’t guaranteed.

Current Class 5A area alignments
District 16-5A
Cedar Park
Leander
CP Vista Ridge
Georgetown
Round Rock
RR Westwood
RR McNeil
RR Stony Point

District 25-5A
Westlake
Austin Bowie
Pflugerville Connally
Pflugerville
Austin High
Bastrop
Austin Akins
Austin Anderson

District 26-5A
New Braunfels
SA Churchill
SA Johnson
SA Lee
SA MacArthur
SA Madison
SA Reagan
SA Roosevelt
Smithson Valley

Westlake Picayune’s predicted 2010-2012 Class 5A area realignments

District 13-5A
Pflugerville
Leander
Georgetown
Round Rock
RR Westwood
RR McNeil
RR Stony Point

District 14-5A
Westlake
Austin Akins
Austin Anderson
Austin Bowie
Austin High
Del Valle
San Marcos

District 25-5A
New Braunfels
Seguin
Cibolo Steele
Converse Judson
Converse Wagner
SA East Central
CC Carroll
CC KIng

Carl Padilla’s predicted 2010-2012 Class 5A area realignments

District 14-5A
Del Valle
Leander
Pflugerville
Georgetown
Round Rock
RR Westwood
RR McNeil
RR Stony Point

District 25-5A
Westlake
Austin Bowie
Austin High
Austin Akins
Austin Anderson
San Marcos
Seguin
New Braunfels

District 26-5A
Cibolo Steele
SA Churchill
SA Johnson
SA Lee
SA MacArthur
SA Madison
SA Reagan
SA Roosevelt